Lithium Battery Outlook- Four Lithium Battery Markets Are Heating up in 2020
Entering 2020, the opportunity in the field of EV lithium batteries is getting smaller and smaller, but at the same time, the demand in other fields is bringing new opportunities to lithium battery companies. Based on the changes in Q1 2020, we noticed that the demand for lithium batteries in areas such as base station energy storage, electric bicycles, TWS, and marine has been significantly increased.
TWS battery: market space exceeds 2.4 billion RMB in 2020
The data shows that in 2019, global selling of TWS headsets is 120 million pairs, with a compound growth rate of 136%; it is expected that the selling of TWS headsets in 2020 will continue to double from 2019 and will grow to 700 million pairs in 2022.
Electric bicycle batteries: expected selling to reach 11.3GWh in 2020
Electric bicycle lithium battery to replace the lead-acid battery is entering the final stage. Due to strong downstream demand, China’s bicycle lithium battery selling amount reached 5.450GWh in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 61.5%. It is expected to increase to 8.448GWh in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 55%.
Putting the perspective on the global market, the demand for lithium batteries for electric bikes is also considerable. Global selling amount of Electric bicycle lithium batteries reached 8.386GWh in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 40.3%. By 2020, the selling amount is expected to reach 11.296GWh, a year-on-year increase of 34.7%.
5G base station energy storage: 2020 demand 10GWh
Within two weeks, China Mobile and China Tower have continuously released base station energy storage bidding projects, with a total demand of nearly 4GWh. The demand for lithium batteries set off by 5G base stations will bring new opportunities to industry chain companies. China will vigorously develop 5G and infrastructure projects in 2020. Under the bidirectional driving role, 5G base stations will be an inevitable trend to be vigorously promoted in 2020. With the four major operators and China Tower opening bid for base station lithium batteries, the demand for base stations will be further released in the future. It is conservatively expected that the demand for new and renovated 5G base stations will exceed 10GWh in 2020.
Marine batteries: demand will reach 35.4GWh in 2025
The electrification of ships, especially pure electric ships, is expected to take the lead in the market outbreak of short-distance transport ships, sightseeing ships, ferry ships such as inland rivers, inland lakes, etc., and are mostly concentrated in the types of ships within 2000 tons.
Since entering 2020, many companies have successively received orders for demand from marine batteries.
In the next 7 years, the total number of civilian ships will be reduced by an average of 4.9% per year, the average net weight per unit of tonnage is 0.178 million tons per ship, and the total tonnage of inland ships will be 92% meter.
The penetration rates of lithium electrification for electric ships in 2019, 2022 and 2025 are calculated according to the electrification rates of 0.035%, 0.55% and 18.5%. By 2025, the lithium battery market for electric ships will reach 35.41GWh.
The development of the electric ship market as a whole has two stages. The growth rate is slow in 2018-2021, and the growth rate is accelerated in 2022-2025. If the penetration rate of lithium electrification in the lithium battery market for electric ships reaches 50%, it will drive the scale of the lithium battery market above 90GWh.