2020 Global EV Lithium-ion Battery Technology Forecast
During the COVID-19 time, global EV market demand dramatically reduced than ever recent year. While Bonnen expert still be positive about it,
1. Standard VDA module 590 technology investment will be further strengthened, but the mainstream status of VDA 355 modules remains unchanged.
Although the German Volkswagen has launched a standard 590 module based on the MEB platform, which has been favoured by the market for higher group efficiency, the related lithium battery industry chain, especially equipment manufacturing technology, has not yet completely broken through. The size of the single-cell corresponding to the standard 590 module is about 550mm long, and it is manufactured with the corresponding lithium battery equipment, especially the lamination technology breakthrough is still difficult.
2. Ensuring high energy density, high-power fast charging technology strives to the higher charging rate.
The fast charging technology of power batteries will continue to focus on high-power charging. Especially for the current new energy vehicle market, the fast charging business model is still better than the power replacement model in most cases. On the one hand, the power exchange model needs to be accelerated under the circumstances of standardization of power batteries and the concentration of new energy vehicles. On the other hand, fast charging is like refuelling a fuel car, and the input-output ratio is relatively more secure than the income from power exchange.
3. The speed of commercialization of solid-state batteries will not be popularized on a large scale in 2020.
From oxide solid-state batteries, the production process still accounts for more than 50%, compared with lithium-ion batteries (the process cost is only 20-30%) is still significantly higher. At the same time, solid-state batteries still have technical problems in dew point management and adhesion, which are difficult to solve for the time being. There is also no breakthrough in manufacturing. Therefore, to achieve mass production, it is estimated that it will take 3-5 years.
4. Lithium supplement technology for power batteries will further develop.
Lithium batteries used in electric vehicles and large energy storage devices are increasingly demanding in terms of energy density. However, the general-purpose lithium anode graphite material has a theoretical specific capacity of 372mAh / g, which cannot be satisfied. The current technology development trend is that the negative electrode uses silicon carbon material, and its specific capacity is 4200mAh / g. However, the negative electrode silicon-carbon has problems such as low charge and discharge efficiency for the first time, large expansion, and long-cycle pulverization. The corresponding lithium supplement technology can effectively avoid the shortage of silicon-carbon anodes and improve energy density. The mechanism of action is mainly divided into two aspects. On the one hand, increase the content of active lithium ions, compensate for the loss of active lithium during the first week of charge and discharge, and improve the reversible capacity of the battery in the first week. On the other hand, it realizes the pre-expansion of the volume of the anode material, reduces the cracking and polarization of the material particles in the process of lithium insertion, and improves the mechanical stability and cyclability of the anode.
5. The energy density of the power battery will be further improved, and the LiFePO4 will be return mainstream.
The sales of new energy vehicles are still restricted by the cruising range. It is still urgent to improve the energy density of the power battery. Although this means that safety is ranked first, the energy density of power batteries will be further improved, especially as the high-nickel ternary cathode material gradually penetrates and will continue to improve. Regarding lithium iron phosphate, BYD will launch a new generation of lithium iron phosphate batteries from May to June 2020. The volume of specific energy density will increase by 50%, which means that there is still room for improvement in the performance of lithium iron phosphate power batteries. Coupled with the advantages of low cost and high safety, with the increase in investment of domestic leading power battery companies, the corresponding energy density and system energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries are expected to return and seize part of the market.
6. Power battery safety will continue greatly improved.
The safety of power batteries is mainly due to thermal runaway of power batteries. At this time, the battery parameter information is obtained by BMS real-time monitoring voltage and current temperature and other direct or indirect means, including SOC, voltage, current, temperature and internal resistance change trend. Then, through a certain algorithm, it realizes early assessment and prediction of risks and takes measures as early as possible to avoid excessive use and abuse of batteries and prevent thermal runaway. With more profound knowledge of lithium battery feature, vehicle manufactures and end-users would be more cautious to avoid abuse of it ensuring the safety too.
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